Short Trade set-up on USDJPY Hourly chart.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 94.57 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. As a complementary signal, price closed below a strong upward trend-line – as shown on the chart. The white horizontal line @ 95.44 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 94.34. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 94.89 and 95.44 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 95.44 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid. Our primary profit target is @ 94.05 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 94.34 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent Hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a number of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 94.89;
fib 61.8% ret. @ 95.02;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 95.21.

Initial Stop Loss @ 95.46; primary Profit target @ 94.05 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Please keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.