Thursday, August 27, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, again, as anticipated, price continued its movement downward. The “more recent” upward trend-line, which we observed yesterday as the new area price was attempting to break downward, has been decisively broken. Also, price has broken the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6274 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. These new signs – in addition to the still-valid negative MACD Divergence and higher time frames’ price actions that we discussed earlier this month – are simply telling us the bears are in control. However, the previous day low @ 1.6158 (not highlighted on this Daily chart to avoid clustering) is another level we might like to keep in mind as a potential support area. Price-break below the 1.6158 level is a good sign that price is ready to continue its downward move.

On the H4 chart above, the swing low @ 1.6418 (that we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which price broke below on Monday, still remains the most recent swing low. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The previous day low @ 1.6158 (that we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart, is shown on this H4 chart. Please let’s keep the level in mind. The white horizontal line @ 1.6443 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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