Long Trade set-up on USDCHF Hourly chart.

With support of the Daily and H4 charts, we currently have a possible Long trade setup on the USDCHF pair.

Pls NOTE: On the H4 chart above, while setting our profit targets and managing our Long trades, let’s keep in mind the most recent swing high @ 1.0208 (highlighted with the blue broken line). It might prove to be a crucial resistance.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.0194. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0158 and 1.0122 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price breaks the 1.0122 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.0214 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.0194 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent Hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.0150;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.0138.

Personally, based on the broken most-recent Hourly swing high @ 1.0140, which I believe is a potentially strong reversal level, I would be going for the 78.6% ret.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.0120; primary Profit target @ 1.0212 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my entry & exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Short trade set-up is forming on the EURUSD pair.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Long Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Pls NOTE: We now have a possible Long trade set-up, however, as we concluded earlier today, conservative traders should refrain from taking this trade, or at least reduce their risk.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.6543. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6471 and 1.6399 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price breaks the 1.6399 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6582 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.6543 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent Hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there is a particular potential reversal level available:

fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6430.

Personally, I consider this 78.6% level a potentially strong reversal level based on the broken most-recent Hourly swing high @ 1.6435.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6397; primary Profit target @ 1.6580 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that this Fibonacci (fib.) level also has a Weekly pivot, an overlapping fib supporting it.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Short Trade set-up on USDJPY Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 90.06. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 90.42 and 90.78 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 90.78 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 89.87 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 90.06 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent Hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor).
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 90.42;
fib 61.8% ret. @ 90.51.

Personally, based on the broken most-recent Hourly swing low @ 90.49, which I believe is a potentially strong reversal level; I would opt for the 61.8% ret.

Initial Stop Loss @ 90.80; primary Profit target @ 89.87 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of about 1% – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Long Trade set-up on USDCHF Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.0403. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0357 and 1.0311 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.0311 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.0428 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.0403 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent Hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.0346;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.0331.

Personally, based on the broken most-recent Hourly swing high @ 1.0347, which I believe is a potentially strong reversal level, I would prefer the 61.8% ret.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.0309; primary Profit target @ 1.0426 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Short Trade set-up on USDJPY Hourly chart.

With support of the Daily and H4 charts, we currently have a possible Short trade setup on the USDJPY pair.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 89.95. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 90.38 and 90.81 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 90.81 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 89.72 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 89.95 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent Hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor).
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 90.48;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 90.63.

Personally, based on the broken most-recent Hourly swing low @ 90.54, which I believe is a potentially strong reversal level, I would be going for the 61.8% ret.

Initial Stop Loss @ 90.83; primary Profit target @ 89.72 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Please keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Long Trade set-up on USDCHF Hourly chart.

With support of the Daily and H4 charts, we currently have a possible Long trade setup on the USDCHF pair.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.0370. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0329 and 1.0288 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.0288 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.0392 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.0370 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent Hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a number of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50.8% ret. @ 1.0329
fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.0319;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.0306.

Personally, based on the broken most-recent Hourly swing high @ 1.0311, which I believe is a potentially strong reversal level, I would be going for the 78.6% ret.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.0286; primary Profit target @ 1.0390 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Short trade set-up is forming on the EURUSD pair.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Short Trade set-up on USDJPY Hourly chart.

There’s currently a Short trade set-up on the USDJPY Hourly chart. I’ll give a top-down analysis – starting with the Daily chart:

On the Daily chart above, as discussed earlier this week, we could see that the USDJPY pair has been in downward channel formation since the second week of last month (August). Price has been travelling gradually toward the lower edge of the channel, and there seems to be enough room for price to continue its move southward: a major support – the Weekly chart most recent swing low @ 91.70 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) is still some pips away. Also, price has broken below the previous day low. The current price behavior is good enough to sustain our bias for a downward price move – from a day trade perspective.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 92.53 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 93.04 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price bottomed @ 91.93 and it has started its retracement upward. We expect price to retrace to the area between 92.49 and 93.03 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). NOTE that price has reached the 50% fib. ret. already. Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 93.03 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 91.63 (the 127% fib. ext.).

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor).
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 92.49 (you would be in the trade already if you chose this level – please manage your trade properly);
fib 78.6% ret. @ 92.80.

Initial Stop Loss @ 93.07; primary Profit target @ 91.63 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we would observe the USDJPY pair has been in a steep downtrend for more than a week. Recent Daily swing low has been broken southward. However, the current price formation isn’t too clear – from my perspective: price seems to be in a tight downward channel, and with yesterday’s candle formation giving us a weak sign that the bears are still somewhat in charge, our bias is still in favor of a continuous downward price movement. To buttress our bearish bias, price has broken the previous day low @ 94.19 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. Let’s expect price to move further downward toward the lower edge of the downward channel. The only “but” today is simply based on the not-too-clear current price formation.

On the H4 chart above, price broke the most recent swing low – also the previous day low @ 94.19 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 95.28 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

P.S.:
As I’m about posting this analysis, a Short USDJPY trade set-up seems to be forming on the Hourly chart with initial Stop Loss @ 94.71; and Primary Profit Target @ 93.96. If you’re able to identify a strong confluence of resistance, please consider taking the trade.
However, please remember to keep your risk per trade low: We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6274. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6409 and 1.6545 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6545 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6201 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.6274 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent Hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor).
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a number of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 1.6409;
fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6441;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6486.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6547; primary Profit target @ 1.6201 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Short trade and Long trade set-ups are forming on the EURUSD and USDCHF pairs respectively.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Today on GBPUSD – Weekly, Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Weekly chart above, a major resistance level – a previous swing low @ 1.7050 (that we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line), which we discussed on the Monthly chart during last week Tuesday analysis, did a very solid job of stopping the bulls in their tracks. As we could see, price action last week ended in a reversal candle formation (a hammer). A reversal candle forming around a strong resistance level, after a protracted upward price movement, is a strong signal that price might be reversing downward. Although, price left the fib. 38.2% retracement “station” and is yet to reach the next fib. “station” @ fib. 50% ret., other factors are, currently, overwhelmingly in favor of a downward move.

On the Daily chart above, the bias for downward price move is strengthened further with a Waving negative MACD Divergence (which we’ve identified using the red dashed lines on the upper and lower windows of the trading platform). A Waving MACD Div. becomes a valid divergence only when MACD crosses below its Signal Line; nevertheless, a Waving –ve MACD Div. informs us of the possibility of an imminent price move downward. The demand or upward trend-line is currently about a hundred pips away from current price position; hence we believe there’s still ample room for price downward move – from a day-trade perspective. While we should be wary of a strong support as price moves further downward toward the upward trend-line, let’s also note that, in case price eventually closed below the trend line, further bearish move – in light of other analysis – is strongly expected.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6649 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6835 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

P.S.:
As I’m about posting this analysis, a Short GBPUSD trade set-up seems to be forming on the Hourly chart with initial Stop Loss @ 1.6719; and Primary Profit Target @ 1.6580. If you’re able to identify a strong confluence of resistance, don’t hesitate to take the trade.
However, please remember to keep your risk per trade low: We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Short Trade set-up on USDJPY Hourly chart.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 94.57 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. As a complementary signal, price closed below a strong upward trend-line – as shown on the chart. The white horizontal line @ 95.44 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 94.34. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 94.89 and 95.44 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 95.44 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid. Our primary profit target is @ 94.05 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 94.34 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent Hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a number of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 94.89;
fib 61.8% ret. @ 95.02;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 95.21.

Initial Stop Loss @ 95.46; primary Profit target @ 94.05 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Please keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Long Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.6879. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6787 and 1.6695 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6695 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6928 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.6879 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there is just a single potential reversal level available (quite unusual):

fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6735.
(Actually, the fib 78.6% ret. is about 12 pips away from its supporting overlapping major fib 38.2% ret., but, considering the strong confluence, which also includes three pivots and a previous Hourly swing high – six supports – the set-up looks too beautiful to ignore)

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6693; primary Profit target @ 1.6928 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6345. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6406 and 1.6467 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6467 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6312 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.6345 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit Order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor).
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a number of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 1.6406;
fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6421;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6441.

(Personally, the 50% and 61.8% ret. levels are weak compared to the 78.6% ret. level as the confluences at both levels are not as strong as that of 78.6% - I might set my Limit Order just below the pivot @ 1.6437, which is just a few pips from fib 78.6%)

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6469; primary Profit target @ 1.6312 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.: Always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Pls. NOTE: As at the time of this posting, price had already rallied. These things happen so fast at times; but for the sake of study, I decided to go ahead and post it. Also NOTE that the rally occurred around the MPC Meetings Minutes news release: trading during news periods could be very risky, so please, if you have to trade, consider reducing your risk.
I’m currently in the trade, but yet to know if it would turn out profitable.

Although, the Daily chart isn’t offering too distinct a pattern to support a Short trade, it isn’t offering much to discourage one either.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke below a swing low @ 1.6382 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), and that automatically shifts our bias to favor a downward price move. However, let’s keep in mind a critical support level: a Daily chart swing low @ 1.6263 that is also visible on the H4 chart (this we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). The white horizontal line @ 1.6556 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6309. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6363 and 1.6417 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6417 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6280 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.6309 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.
NOTE: Price will reach our profit target before the critical support @ 1.6263 that we discussed much earlier today – an encouraging sign. However, that would be if price didn’t break too far below the current price-bottom before retracing upward to the sell-area.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6375;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6393 (Pls note this level doesn’t look as strong as the 61.8% ret.: the identified resistance levels around it aren’t too close together)

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6419; primary Profit target @ 1.6280 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Also, keep in mind the MPC Meeting Minutes news release at 08:30 GMT – be wary of possible price volatility during this period.

Short Trade set-up on USDCHF Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.0658. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0706 and 1.0753 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.0753 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.0633 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.0658 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell. NOTE: Price will reach our profit target before the critical support @ 1.0630 that we discussed much earlier today – an encouraging sign. However, that would be if price didn’t break below the current price-bottom before retracing upward the sell-area.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.0717;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.0733.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.0755; primary Profit target @ 1.0633 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Long trade set-up is forming on the EURUSD pairs.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6283. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6350 and 1.6416 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6416 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6247 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.6283 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6365;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6387.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6418; primary Profit target @ 1.6247 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Long Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.6481. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6418 and 1.6355 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6355 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6514 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.6481 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6403;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6382.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6353; primary Profit target @ 1.6514 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Short trade and Long trade set-ups are forming on the USDCHF and GBPUSD pairs respectively.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD hourly.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price bottomed temporarily @ 1.6031. Hence, we expected price to retrace to the area between 1.6130 and 1.6230 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Currently, price has retraced to the 50% fib. level. Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6230 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our profit target is @ 1.5977.


The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 1.6130 (price is currently at this level);
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6187.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6232; primary Profit target @ 1.5977 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here. Personally, I usually don’t go for 50% as the reward/risk is too conservative for me, but it doesn’t mean you can’t profit using it as your entry level, as long as your trade is well managed. As shown, my limit order is already set around the 78.6% level.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.

Long Trade set-up on EURUSD hourly.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 1.3938. This shifts our bias for the day to an upward price move. Please NOTE: the Daily chart, to me, isn’t having any distinct pattern at the moment that could offer us good clues about today’s direction for price. A previous Daily swing low is holding well as a support @ 1.3826, but price is also moving close (again) to the base of the upward channel that we’ve talked about throughout this week. Based on your risk tolerance, you might want to consider this observation unclear enough to refrain from taking a trade, or reduce your risk exposure.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.3985. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.3922 and 1.3858 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.3858 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.4018 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.3985 before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.3907;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.3885.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.3856; primary Profit target @ 1.4018 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.

P.S.:
Similar Short trade and Long trade set-ups are forming on the USDCHF and GBPUSD pairs respectively.
Also, keep in mind the Official Bank Rate at 11:00 GMT – specifically regarding the GBPUSD pair. Be wary of possible price volatility during this period.

Failed Short Trade set-up on EURUSD hourly.

Yesterday, as seen on the Daily chart, price rallied upward only for it to be strongly halted (once again) by the base of a previous channel that was broken late last week. As a result of this strong upward price rejection, price turned downward and proceeded to break both lows of Monday and Tuesday (you might have to squint to see this).
NOTE: I lost a Long trade I took yesterday as result of this price move. Though, the H4 and Hourly parameters were in place, I had envisaged the possibility of the above scenario, and as such, risked only about 0.25% of my capital.

On the H4 chart the price movement described above resulted in price breaking the most recent swing low @ 1.3875, which automatically gave us a bearish bias; in other words, a bias for downward price movement.

On the Hourly chart, however, price recently broke above the most recent swing high @ 1.3926, and based on our trading method, that automatically nullifies any previous trade set-up we were anticipating.
Prior to price breaking the most recent swing high, the positive MACD divergence should have warned us of the imminent price reversal upward. Personally, this kept me from seeking a Short trade.

However, please note that MACD divergence – just like any other indicator – doesn’t always result in a valid warning. That’s one of the uncertainties we have to deal with when trading; we just have to stick to a particular approach for consistency on our part. NO ONE METHOD IS ERROR-PROOF.