Monday, August 3, 2009

Long Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.6879. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6787 and 1.6695 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6695 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6928 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.6879 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there is just a single potential reversal level available (quite unusual):

fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6735.
(Actually, the fib 78.6% ret. is about 12 pips away from its supporting overlapping major fib 38.2% ret., but, considering the strong confluence, which also includes three pivots and a previous Hourly swing high – six supports – the set-up looks too beautiful to ignore)

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6693; primary Profit target @ 1.6928 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

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