Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Update on today’s USDCHF Short Trade set-up

Pls NOTE: Based on earlier analysis of the USDJPY pair today, a couple of Short trade set-ups occurred. If you used the fib 50% ret. levels both times, you would have closed the first in profit, and the second would comfortably be in your favor by now: The first set-up had its 50% level @ 94.40 with primary profit target @ 93.95; the second set-up (with the fib drawn from the same Hourly swing high, but with different price-bottoms) had its 50% level @ 94.21 with primary profit target @ 93.47. As you’re probably aware, personally, I go for 61.8% ret. – and preferably, 78.6% ret. because of my love for high reward:risk trade. So, I missed both trades.

If you were able to identify the USDCHF Short trade set-up and took the trade, that’s great.

On the Hourly chart above, we could notice the sharp upward retracement from where price initially bottomed @ 1.0721 to the exact level of fib. 61.8% ret. @ 1.0757. If your Limit Order wasn’t placed around the fib. 50% ret. level @ 1.0750, or a few pips below 61.8% level, you would have missed the trade. I missed it by a whisker. It could be very frustrating.
As we could see, as price sharply retraced upward, with almost the same momentum, it reversed downward all the way to hit the primary profit target @ 1.0706 (the fib. 127% ext.); then continued its “mad” rush further downward to hit the secondary target @ 1.0686 (the fib. 161.8% ext.).

The 15min chart above, gives us a much clearer view of the Hourly price action.

P.S.:
This trade was fully supported by the H4 chart price action.

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