Thursday, July 9, 2009

Long Trade set-up on EURUSD hourly.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 1.3938. This shifts our bias for the day to an upward price move. Please NOTE: the Daily chart, to me, isn’t having any distinct pattern at the moment that could offer us good clues about today’s direction for price. A previous Daily swing low is holding well as a support @ 1.3826, but price is also moving close (again) to the base of the upward channel that we’ve talked about throughout this week. Based on your risk tolerance, you might want to consider this observation unclear enough to refrain from taking a trade, or reduce your risk exposure.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.3985. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.3922 and 1.3858 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.3858 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.4018 (the 127% fib. ext.).
Also, if price breaks above 1.3985 before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.3907;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.3885.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.3856; primary Profit target @ 1.4018 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.

P.S.:
Similar Short trade and Long trade set-ups are forming on the USDCHF and GBPUSD pairs respectively.
Also, keep in mind the Official Bank Rate at 11:00 GMT – specifically regarding the GBPUSD pair. Be wary of possible price volatility during this period.

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