Thursday, July 16, 2009

Long Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.6481. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6418 and 1.6355 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6355 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6514 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.6481 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6403;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6382.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6353; primary Profit target @ 1.6514 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Short trade and Long trade set-ups are forming on the USDCHF and GBPUSD pairs respectively.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

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