Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

NOTE: To me, most of the majors are still choppy and indecisive; if you decide to stay in the market – and not stay away – proper Trade Management is the “HOLY GRAIL” here, and with that, please let us remember to keep our risks per trade very low. Large draw downs are very difficult to recover from.

On the Daily chart above, price is currently within an upward channel (thanks to Joetrece’s observation). We expect price to continue its upward move toward the upper part of the channel. However, there’s a critical resistance level – the most recent Daily swing high - @ 1.6585 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line); it would be nice to see price break above this level. Also NOTE that price is currently hovering around a very major year-high resistance level @ 1.6744 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). Price currently might be struggling against a possible intense selling pressure.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken above the most recent swing high @ 1.6523 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 1.6380 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.
The resistance level @ 1.6585 that also happens to be the Daily swing high discussed earlier (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) is quite important. The less aggressive traders might have to wait to see price break above this level before seeking a Long trade set-up on the Hourly.

However, regardless of our individual decisions, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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