Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we could see the market is in a symmetrical triangle formation. From a longer term perspective, this is a price consolidation phase and it’s probably better to stay out of the market for now. However, from a day-trade perspective, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 1.4072 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. This signals the possibility of further upward move. Again, although price is advancing toward the upper part of the symmetrical triangle – a critical resistance area – there’s still room for price to move a bit further upward. Please note we’re only contemplating a Long trade because we’re analyzing the market from a day-trade perspective. Nevertheless, the upper part of the symmetrical triangle remains a critical resistance area. As a conservative trader, it’s just ok to wait for a clearer coast, or reduce your risk if you decide to seek a Long trade set-up on the hourly chart.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 1.4014 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. From a day-trade perspective, this automatically shifts our bias for price movement upward. The green horizontal line @ 1.3910 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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