Monday, July 20, 2009

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, price closed below the symmetrical triangle on Thurday – last week, re-tested it on Friday; and currently, it seems set to continue its downward move. To buttress this bearish bias, price recently broke last week Thurday low @ 1.0701 (a previous critical support level). From a day-trade perspective, we have good reason to go Short – provided the H4 chart support the downward move bias.
The next critical support level is @ 1.0630 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). We should keep this level in mind (in relation to our profit target, in case we are eventually able to get a Short trade set-up on the hourly chart). If price breaks below the level before retracing upward, it’ll even make the coast clearer for a Short trade.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.0701 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. As we’ve probably observed, this swing low @ 1.0701, coincidentally, is also the last week Thursday low that we discussed on the Daily chart. From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Short trade. The white horizontal line @ 1.0816 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.
The critical support level @ 1.0630 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) that we also discussed on the Daily chart is visible too on H4 chart. Let’s really keep it in mind when managing our Short trades – in case we eventually got into one.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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