Friday, December 18, 2009

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, as it’s clearly seen, the USDCHF has been in strong uptrend – at least from a medium term perspective; consequently, we’ve been having many daily bullish biases in the past weeks. From a day trade perspective, our bias is still in favor of the bulls, however, price is currently in an area we could regard as a notable resistance area which includes the upper edge of a downward or bearish channel and a Weekly swing high @ 1.0450 (which we’ve highlighted on the Daily chart using the blue broken line). Buttressing the potential strength of this resistance area is price’s current inability to break above yesterday’s high @ 1.0507 (not highlighted); instead, the bears are attempting to breach the previous day’s low @ 1.0381 (also not highlighted).
As earlier said, our daily bias remains bullish, but we have enough contradictory signs to make us exercise patience in seeking an Hourly long trade setup, on this pair, until we have a clearer coast.

On the H4 chart above, price broke, at that time, the most recent swing high @ 1.0424 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustained our bias in favor of an upward price move.
However, in line with conflicting signs observed on the Daily chart, we also have what could be described as a strong, waving negative MACD Divergence on the H4 chart (not identified), which fully supports the possibility of an imminent – probably major – bearish retracement.
The green horizontal line @ 1.0342 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, for more aggressive traders, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

No comments:

Post a Comment