Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but...

On the Daily chart above, late last week, the bulls’ attempt to make a new year-high was rebuffed as price reversed @ 1.5140 – only 3 pips shy of the current year high @ 1.5143 (which we’ve pointed out using the green arrow). Since then, price has been in a “consistent” downward move, threatening the longer term bullish scenario. From a day-trade perspective, our bias is currently bearish. Yesterday, price broke below the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4827 (that we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which strengthens our bearish bias; although price reversed upward to close around the 1.4827 level – forming a quasi reversal candle in the process. In other words, yesterday’s price action supports our bearish bias but, at the same time, tells us to be cautious while seeking Short trades.
An important observation, which buttresses the notion of a threatened longer term bullish scenario, is the negative MACD Divergence currently seen on the Daily chart (which we’ve identified using the red bold lines on both upper and lower panes of the chart). A –ve MACD Divergence signals a possibility of an imminent, notable price-collapse.
To be further convinced of the bears’ readiness to continue their downward move today, we would like to see price break below the previous day’s low @ 1.4755 (not highlighted). We expect the next critical support @ 1.4625 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price broke, at that time, the most recent swing low @ 1.4821 (which we’ve highlighted using the uppermost blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, since then, price has been struggling to stay decisively below the level (i.e. the 1.4821 level); as a result, the most recent swing low – also the previous day’s low @ 1.4755 (which we’ve highlighted using the middle blue broken line) has remained “untouched.” As discussed on the Daily chart, we would like to see price break below this 1.4755 level to be further convinced of the bears’ readiness to continue their downward move today. Also seen on the H4 chart is the 1.4625 level (which we’ve highlighted using the lowest blue broken line), which we expect to be the next critical support level.
The white horizontal line @ 1.4904 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.