Thursday, December 10, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but...

On the Daily chart above, continuing from yesterday, we would observe the lower edge of the “minor” channel (the red channel) is still doing a good job of stalling the bears’ move. The previous day’s candle closed as a reversal candle (Doji), which indicates the likelihood of a bullish retracement, possibly toward the upper edge of the channel. Supported by the current lower-high lower-low formation on the Daily chart – as well as other price patterns/actions – our bias, from a day-trade perspective, remains bearish. However, partly because of the channel’s lower edge and the previous day’s Doji formation, to be further convinced of the bears’ readiness to continue their move today, we would prefer to see price break below the previous day’s low @ 1.6165 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price broke, at that time, the most recent swing low @ 1.6254 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, the 1.6254 level was the same level we mentioned yesterday; and we could observe how price is currently struggling to stay clearly above or below it.
As discussed on the Daily chart, “to be further convinced of the bears’ readiness to continue their move today, we would prefer to see price break below the previous day’s low – also the most recent swing low @ 1.6165 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line).
The white horizontal line @ 1.6367 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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