Thursday, December 3, 2009

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, continuing from yesterday, price is currently still within the narrow downward or bearish channel, and, supported by the most recent price action: price break below previous days’ lows, which apparently include yesterday’s low @ 0.9977 (not highlighted), we are still anticipating further bearish movement toward the lower edge of the narrow bearish channel. Again, as discussed yesterday, while gunning for the lower edge of the channel, we would expect price to meet some hurdles around the most recent Daily swing low – the current year-low @ 0.9915 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). From a day-trade perspective, our bias remains bearish while keeping the critical 0.9915 support level in mind.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 0.9977 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. The critical support level – the current year-low @ 0.9915 (that we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart, is seen on the H4 chart. We have about a 60-pip gap between current price position and the year-low @ 0.9915: a moderate distance allowing us to seek Hourly Short trades from a day-trade perspective
The white horizontal line @ 1.0026 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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