Today on GBPUSD – The bears keeping hope alive.

On the Daily chart above, the first couple of days in December – precisely Tuesday and Wednesday last week – we saw the bulls threatening to nullify our bearish bias on the GBPUSD as there was a deep bullish retracement toward the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.6744 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). However, the downward or bearish trend-line (which we’ve highlighted using the red solid line), joining forces with the 1.6744 level, put up a strong resistance against price rally; as a result, since last week Thursday, price has resumed its downward movement. Earlier today, price broke the previous trading day’s low – Friday’s low @ 1.6421 (not highlighted), and that sustains our bearish bias from a day-trade perspective. We expect the next critical support area to be around the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6269 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6421 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. As discussed on the Daily chart, we expect the next critical support area to be around the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6269 (which we’ve highlighted on the H4 chart using the lower blue broken line) – about 80 pips away from current price position. Price’s swoon earlier today has been very sharp – it has already moved downward by over 150 pips, hence a bullish retracement, which might create an Hourly Short trade set-up won’t be a surprise.
The white horizontal line @ 1.6668 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.