Friday, January 29, 2010

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, from the overall perspective, the medium term bullish trend is quite obvious. Currently, the USDCHF pair is forming higher-highs and higher-lows, which could be observed within an upward or bullish channel. Strengthening the case for a continuous bullish move – possibly toward the upper edge of the bullish channel – is the bulls’ eventual break above a previous, critical resistance confluence: the combination of a downward or bearish trend-line (the red solid line) and the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.0494 (identified by the yellow arrow). Price had a relatively decisive break above the resistance confluence as yesterday’s candle closed above it as a bullish candle.
Based on the above observation, our bias remains in support of price moving upward; however, price’s current inability to break above the previous day’s high @ 1.0554 (not highlighted) is not a good sign supporting the bulls’ resolve to push further upward today. Preferably, we would like to see price break above the 1.0554 level before seeking Long trade setups on the Hourly chart – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, price is yet to break above the most recent swing high @ 1.0546 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). That buttresses the need for us to exercise patience in seeking Long trade setups. Although our bias remains bullish, until price breaks above the 1.0546 level, it’s advisable not to long this pair.
Considering the time of this posting, and today being the last trading day of this week and month, there might not be much to do regarding this pair, today.
The green horizontal line @ 1.0474 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, in the unlikely event that the coast gets clearer today, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, as anticipated yesterday, price collapsed further but was unable to close decisively below the critical support level – the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4028 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line): a sign that the bears were having some difficulties. However, by the early hours of today, the bears gathered more momentum to break further beneath the 1.4028 level – breaking below the previous day’s low @ 1.3992 (not highlighted) in the process; but again, based on current price action, the bears have been forced to retreat as price is now back at the 1.4028 area.
What the above scenario is simply telling us is that the bears are ready to push further downward, but the bulls are equally resolved not to make it a cake walk for them. Again, from a day-trade perspective, our bias remains bearish, but the coast isn’t too clear. Today’s candle’s close should offer more information about where price might be heading.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.4020 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, to buttress our “caveat” observation on the Daily chart, we would observe a waving positive MACD divergence on the H4 chart which means a bullish retracement might be imminent. Also, we would observe that, though price broke sharply below the 1.4020 most recent swing low, it’s seriously struggling to stay comfortably below it. We need to exercise patience on this pair for now.
The white horizontal line @ 1.4178 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, in the case of a clearer coast, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, since early December, last year, the bears have been in control of the EURUSD and current price action is showing they are probably resolved to keep situation that way. After the sharp break below the upward or bullish channel, and a subsequent shallow bullish retracement that got stopped about 20 pips below a strong resistance level – the most recent Weekly swing low @ 1.4216 (which we’ve highlighted on the Daily chart using the upper blue broken line), price seems set to continue its southward journey: Yesterday’s candle closed as strong bearish candle and early market activity today has seen price break below the previous day’s low @ 1.4041 (not highlighted) and, more importantly, the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4028 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). Consequently, we expect price to continue collapsing. Based on the above analysis, as expected, our bias is currently bearish, although very conservative traders might prefer to wait for today’s candle to close decisively below the 1.4028 level before placing their Short trades.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low – also the previous day’s low @ 1.4041 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. We would also observe on the H4 chart the important support level – the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.4028 (that we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which was discussed on the Daily chart. Currently, price has breached both the 1.4041 and 1.4028 levels. While there might be a tussle between the bulls and bears around these levels for a while, we expect price to eventually continue its southward move.
The white horizontal line @ 1.4193 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Nine Reasons For Your Money Trouble

Personal Note: In this very helpful article, Steven reinforces the fact that, usually, the primary steps we need to take in order to achieve our personal finance dreams aren’t any elaborate, hardly-within-our-control steps, but those “simple” ones that are very much within our ability: they don’t cost anything – in terms of money – to actualize, they only require a resolved mind.


By [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Steven_Gillman]Steven Gillman

People have money trouble for different reasons. On the other hand, there are some mistakes and bad financial habits that are common in these situations. This explains why some people have these problems with money over and over. See if any of the following apply to you.

1. Not wanting to think about money.

If you didn't pay attention or think about where you were going when driving you would probably get lost and have accidents more often. The same is true of money. Many people just don't like to pay attention to it or think about it. Perhaps something from their past has caused them to think it isn't right to think about it, but the results are continual problems. Give it some thought.

2. Blaming situations and other people.

Sometimes a person is partly right about whose fault it is that they are broke or in financial trouble. But even then focusing on blaming outside forces it is the absolute worst approach to solving the problem. When you blame you give away power. Always look at what your role in the problem is and what you can do to correct or improve the situation.

3. Wanting appearances over reality.

If you want to look wealthier, go get a loan and buy that new car today. If you want to be wealthier, that's the worse thing you can do. Did you know that 40% of millionaires buy used cars? But this isn't about cars. It's about building wealth and using your money wisely. You probably can't guess who around you is a millionaire. Give up trying to create the illusion and start working on the reality.

4. Not knowing where it goes.

One big reason many people have money trouble is that they have no idea where the money goes. I had a friend who had pizza delivered three times per week for about $20 each time. I'll bet he didn't know he was spending over $3,000 per year on that one habit. Write down everything you spend and what you spent it on for a month or two and see what's really going on.

5. Not calculating real costs.

Once people decide they want something, they often play games with their own minds. They say "It only costs..." and ignore all the ongoing costs. When you buy a boat, for example, you have to consider not just the payments, but the cost to operate it, the insurance, the annual license and registration costs, repairs and maintenance, and so on. I can assure you that some people are paying $200 for each use of their small boats without ever knowing it. Do the math.

6. Thinking debt buys more things.

It is true that you can have more things right now by putting them on your credit cards. The part people forget is that this makes everything more expensive, and if you pay more for everything you buy, doesn't it make sense that over the course of your life you can't buy as much? You get better prices for cash, and you save the interest charges as well. Debt is for homes, business and investments. Pay cash for everything else.

7. Not controlling fixed expenses.

There are expenses you can easily stop at any time, like going out to eat or buying music. Then there are your more or less fixed expenses, like rent, electricity, gasoline for the car, insurance and so on. If your fixed expenses are too high you are in trouble every time your income dips or is interrupted, or something expensive happens. Rent a smaller place if necessary, get a high-mileage (used) car, and try to keep all the fixed costs in your life to half of your income.

8. Thinking financial surprises are unpredictable.

If unexpected car repairs or other surprises that cost less than a thousand dollars are the source of your financial problems, you need to start thinking about this differently. You don't know when the washing machine will die or when your insurance rates will rise, but you do know that these "surprises" will happen at some time, so you can plan for them. Set aside money every week for sudden expenses and it will be there when you need it.

9. Helping friends and family too much.

I have seen many people get into money trouble because of their generosity. Every time they have a bit of money saved a friend or family member has a need for it, and they help - or so they think. Money rarely changes people's situation if they don't know how to use it. And never quite getting your own financial situation right makes you less able to help others. Set your own house in order first, and then give wisely.

Copyright Steve Gillman. Learn more about avoiding [http://www.themeaningofmoney.com]Money Trouble, and get the free Money Matters Newsletter at: http://www.TheMeaningOfMoney.com

Article Source: [http://EzineArticles.com/?Nine-Reasons-For-Your-Money-Trouble&id=3570377] Nine Reasons For Your Money Trouble

Monday, January 25, 2010

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, since yesterday, we’ve not seen much change based on our view of recent activities on the USDJPY pair: probably due to the lower edge of the downward or bearish channel, which we discussed earlier, yesterday’s price action ended in a bullish mode – creating an “inside candle” reversal candle pattern in the process. However, because of the Asian news that was released during early hours of today, price movement got rather volatile and, consequently, distorted the “ordered” story that was unfolding on the Daily chart as price collapsed sharply to break below the “inside candle” @ 89.77 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) – an action that weakened the strength of the reversal candle pattern.
Although, our bias remains bearish from a day trade perspective, price is yet to break decisively below the lower edge of the bearish channel; hence the coast remains to be very clear for us for us to seek Short trade setups on the Hourly chart – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, price broke the most recent swing low @ 89.94 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, we would observe that price is struggling to stay below the 89.94 level as it was forced to sharply retrace upward after the initial break. That price action tells us, just as with yesterday’s, that the bears are still under threat. In all, our bias is still bearish, but the coast isn’t too clear.
The white horizontal line @ 90.56 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, for more aggressive traders, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, as stated in one of the previous analyses on the USDJPY pair, there’s a possibility that, with the current bearish move that started over two weeks ago, we are seeing the early stage of an overall bearish trend continuation. Price is currently making a lower-high-lower-low formation, which is partially captured within a “quasi” downward or bearish channel, and it’s one of the strongest signals confirming the bears’ reign.
However, we would observe price is currently around the lower edge of the bearish channel, hence there’s a possibility we might experience a bullish retracement on this currency pair soon. Buttressing a possible bullish retracement is price’s inability to break below the previous trading day’s low – Friday’s low @ 89.77 (not highlighted).
From a day-trade perspective, our bias is still bearish, but that position is threatened by recent price actions. To be on the safe side, especially for more conservative traders, it’s better to wait for a clearer coast before trading this pair.

On the H4 chart above, price is yet to break below the most recent swing low @ 89.80 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line): a sign telling us the bears might be losing control. Also, we would observe that the most recent swing low @ 89.80 was formed only a few pips above the previous most recent swing low – also Friday’s low @ 89.77 (pointed out with the yellow arrow), forming a “double-bottom” reversal pattern in the process. These are all signs indicating all isn’t well with the bears at the moment.
As alluded to on the Daily chart, until the 89.77 support is broken, the case for a bearish move is weak – though our bias is still bearish. The white horizontal line @ 90.56 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, if we eventually have a clearer coast, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, we would observe that yesterday’s price action ended in a reversal candle pattern formed around the resistance area (or a quasi resistance confluence) consisting of a Weekly swing high @ 1.0452 (which we’ve highlighted on the Daily chart using the blue broken line) and the upper edge of a symmetrical triangle formation. Although, that single action in itself is a strong signal that a bearish retracement is imminent or has commenced, price breaking below the previous day’s low @ 1.0402 has further strengthened the possibility of price travelling southward. As expected, our bias now favors the bears.
In case price eventually swoons, we expect the lower edge of the symmetrical triangle to be the next strong support level.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.0419 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move.
The white horizontal line @ 1.0494 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.