Update on today’s GBPUSD Long Trade set-up

If you’ve not been able to go Long on the GBPUSD based on the Long trade set-up that was posted a few hours ago (using the fib 61.8% retracement @ 1.6403), a new hourly swing low has been formed @ 1.6395; hence, the previous set-up is no more valid. If you took the trade around the fib 61.8% ret., it’s time to move your stop to just under the new hourly swing low @ 1.6395 (Hope you see this post in time, in case price decides to break the swing low downward).
Another signal that is currently weakening our upward move bias is the waving –ve MACD divergence that is about crossing below its signal line. MACD crossing below its signal line will validate the –ve MACD divergence, which supports the possibility of further price movement downward.

Personally, I took this trade @ the fib 61.8% ret.; took some profits when price moved favorably by almost the same amount of pips I risked initially (47pips), and have now moved my Stop Loss for the remaining position to under the new hourly swing low @ 1.6395.

Long Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.6481. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6418 and 1.6355 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6355 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6514 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.6481 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6403;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6382.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6353; primary Profit target @ 1.6514 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Short trade and Long trade set-ups are forming on the USDCHF and GBPUSD pairs respectively.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 1.6379 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. This signals the possibility of further price movement upward. A major resistance level – the GBPUSD pair year high – is @ 1.6744 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). This, however, is hundreds of pips away, so, it’s not in any way an imminent barrier for a Long trade from a day-trade perspective – barring any sudden price surge.

On the H4 chart above, from a day-trade perspective, we are in a nice up-trend: price is forming higher highs and higher lows. Price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6343 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) upward, and re-testing it. This is another good sign supporting a Long trade.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we could see the market is in a symmetrical triangle formation. From a longer term perspective, this is a price consolidation phase and it’s probably better to stay out of the market for now. However, from a day-trade perspective, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 1.4072 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. This signals the possibility of further upward move. Again, although price is advancing toward the upper part of the symmetrical triangle – a critical resistance area – there’s still room for price to move a bit further upward. Please note we’re only contemplating a Long trade because we’re analyzing the market from a day-trade perspective. Nevertheless, the upper part of the symmetrical triangle remains a critical resistance area. As a conservative trader, it’s just ok to wait for a clearer coast, or reduce your risk if you decide to seek a Long trade set-up on the hourly chart.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 1.4014 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. From a day-trade perspective, this automatically shifts our bias for price movement upward. The green horizontal line @ 1.3910 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, since last week, the base of the downward channel has been doing a good job of holding price from moving further downward, and with a series of reversal candle patterns (including hammers and spinning tops/inside candles), price seems set to rally upward – probably toward the upper part of the channel.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 92.93 upward. From a day-trade perspective, this automatically shifts our bias for price movement upward. The green horizontal line @ 91.71 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD hourly.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price bottomed temporarily @ 1.6031. Hence, we expected price to retrace to the area between 1.6130 and 1.6230 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Currently, price has retraced to the 50% fib. level. Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6230 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our profit target is @ 1.5977.


The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 1.6130 (price is currently at this level);
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6187.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6232; primary Profit target @ 1.5977 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here. Personally, I usually don’t go for 50% as the reward/risk is too conservative for me, but it doesn’t mean you can’t profit using it as your entry level, as long as your trade is well managed. As shown, my limit order is already set around the 78.6% level.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.

Today on GBPUSD – Weekly and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Weekly chart above, since the month of May, series of reversal candle patterns have been forming around the 38.2% fib. retracement level. This is a good sign that supports a possibility of a protracted and sustained downward price movement that might last for months.

On the Daily chart above, the negative MACD divergence is still intact, and still confirming our bias for a downward price move. However, the upward or demand trend-line (the red line) is a critical place to keep close eye on, as well as the daily swing low @ 1.5982 (which we’ve highlighted using the broken blue line): price may find strong support as it moves further down toward these areas.

On the H4 chart above, from a day-trade perspective, we are in a downtrend. Price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6153 downward; but as we observed on the Daily chart, let’s keep close eye on the critical support @ 1.5982, which we are also seeing on the H4.
Personally, from a day-trade perspective, the coast is clear enough to seek a Short Trade set-up on the hourly, but it’s also not a bad idea to wait for price to break the critical support @ 1.5982 downward before seeking to sell.

Please remember, we always need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our short positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: to sell today, we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.