Thursday, October 15, 2009

Today on EURUSD - Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, since the beginning of this month, the bulls have been raging; and, though we might have a bearish retracement soon, the bulls seem determined to hold on to their reign for sometime: major resistance levels are being breached on the Weekly and Monthly charts, and the fundamentals – recent economic reports – are fully in support of a sustained rally; although, uncertainties still abound. Price is currently around the upper edge of the upward or bullish channel, hence, there’s a possibility of, at least, a short lived bearish retracement; after which we expect price to find support around the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.4817 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). It might take more than a whole day for us to see the above explanation unfold – if we happen to have judged correctly; however, since no price action is currently supporting a suitable bearish move, it’s advisable to wait for a Hourly chart Long trade setup, which must be confirmed by Hourly price pattern forming higher highs and higher lows, and supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4874 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.4761 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, on Friday, last week, we anticipated a bullish retracement based on price’s sharp break above the lower trend-line – which was, most likely, aided by the strong support area @ 88.00 (that we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line). Based on further analysis, we also noted, using the following words, that: “We expect the bulls to meet their next major resistance around a major Daily swing low @ 90.11 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which might be forming a resistance-confluence with the upper bearish trend-line (the bold red line).”
In line with our analysis, the rally stalled around the 90.11 level; and currently, preceded by previous two days’ reversal candle formations, the bears seem ready to continue their movement. We expect major support around the same 88.00 support level, which previously was unbreakable for the bears. From a day trade perspective, we seem to have enough room to seek Short trades.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 89.61 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 90.02 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Update on yesterday’s EURUSD Long Trade set-up

If you were able to identify the EURUSD Long trade set-up, which occurred yesterday – around 14:00 GMT – and took the trade, that’s great.

On the Hourly chart above, we had a support-confluence around, at that time, the most recent “broken” swing high @ 1.4800. The support-confluence included the swing high, overlapping fibs, and a Daily pivot. Less than an hour ago, price hit the primary profit target – the 127% ext. @ 1.4905. If you managed your trade properly, scaling out your profits and adjusting your Stop Loss appropriately, you would’ve had a minimum of 2:1 reward/risk profit i.e. your profit would’ve, at least, doubled the amount you initially risked.

P.S.:
This trade was fully supported by the H4 chart price action.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, with the support of higher time frame charts, we concluded our bias was bearish, but that we would like to see price to, not only close below the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.5808 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) by the end of yesterday, but also below the lower edge of the downward or bearish channel. As at the end of yesterday, though price closed @ 1.5798 – slightly below the 1.5808 level, it was unable to close, clearly, below the downward or bearish channel. However, current price action is strengthening our bearish bias: price recently breached yesterday’s low @ 1.5727 (not highlighted to avoid cluttered chart). This single price action, with the support of previous price actions, is quite good enough for us to seek Short trade setups on the Hourly charts – supported by the H4 charts.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.5727 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. Please NOTE that 1.5727 – the most recent swing low level – also happens to be yesterday’s low, which we discussed on the Daily chart.
The white horizontal line @ 1.5882 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, since the latter part of last month, we’ve been having what I would consider an interesting price action, which resulted in sort of a channel formation (as observed within the two blue horizontal lines): Price, after failing to breach the, at that time, most recent swing low (not highlighted to avoid cluttered chart), retraced upward, only to meet an uncompromising “veteran” resistance level, which “produced” the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.6132 (that we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). With the stiff resistance, price had to turn around, again, to retest the previous swing low, which, also by now, has “produced” the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.5808 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). Now, price is showing signs that it is not prepared to be sent back upward: the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.5808 has been breached; however, for further bearish move confirmation, we would like to see price to, not only close below the 1.5808 level by the end of today, but also below the lower edge of the downward or bearish channel. In all, with the support of higher time frame charts, our bias is currently bearish; but conservative traders might prefer to wait for today’s candle close to make their final conclusion.
Also, trade volume would most likely be thin today as there’re bank holidays in Japan, US, and Canada; and that might result in unusual or erratic price movements. Please let’s also bear that in mind if we would be trading.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.5857 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6119 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

How to Invest Your Money - Make the Right Choice

Personal Note: This article by Tonya is succinct, and, to me, very loaded: I really don’t have much to add. It’s a summarized, comprehensive note on the basics of investing – so to speak. The insights gained would aid our ability to navigate the area of personal finance.


By [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Tonya_Jackson]Tonya Jackson

When it comes to investing, it is important that you know exactly what your intention is and exactly what benefit your chosen investment instrument is designed to provide. You cannot invest in the stock market and expect your income to be guaranteed some months down the road. There are several concepts that you will have to get familiar with if you want to learn how to invest. First is that saving is not nearly the same as investing. Saving is putting aside money for future use. Investing, on the other hand, is making your money grow to a value that is more than what it is worth at present. Putting your money in a bank account that accumulates at a rate lower than the inflation rate is definitely not investing. Buying a government bond that has a coupon rate that is a lot higher than the inflation rate is investing. These and other concepts will be clearer to you when you expose yourself to educational materials that teach you how to invest.

If you want to learn how to invest, you have to know what the different investment instruments are and what they can do for your money. Once you know what your investment goals are, you can decide whether to put your money on a high-risk instrument or on a low-risk instrument, or a combination of both. You must understand that the higher the yield that you expect from an instrument, the higher the risk that you will have to carry on it. Any material that teaches you The how to invest will also teach you about the value of long-term investment instruments versus short-term instruments.

The longer term instruments usually have the potential of earning more. But then again, market conditions will have a lot to do with whether or not a particular instrument will be able to give you good yields at particular times or not. A diverse investment portfolio with a combination of high-risk and low-risk instruments as well as a combination of short, medium, and long-term instruments could be built to answer most of your financial needs throughout your lifetime. You can do this either on your own or with the help of a certified financial planner. You can learn how to invest by reading books or getting hold of online training materials on investing and investments

It is important to learn [http://www.urnestegg.com/how-to-invest-investing-saving-money]how to invest your money. Both saving and [http://www.urnestegg.com/how-to-invest-investing-saving-money]investing money are equally important in acquiring and building personal wealth.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Tonya_Jackson http://EzineArticles.com/?How-to-Invest-Your-Money---Make-the-Right-Choice&id=3036995

Friday, October 9, 2009

Today on USDJPY – We seem to be at the beginning of a bullish retracement.

On the Daily chart above, two days ago – on Wednesday – we identified the 88.00 level as “an area where some institutional traders had “large stop-loss sales lurked.” Although, we didn’t place primary emphasis on it in the analysis, it arguably turned out to be the sole driving force of the USDJPY pair since then. During the very early hours of today, price rallied by almost 100 pips; and currently, the pair has moved more than a 100 pips upward. As a result, price pierced sharply above the steep downward or bearish trend-line. Though price is yet to close above the trend-line (that would be determined after close of today’s candle), its big break above the trend-line – in addition to the strong 88.00 support level – gives us an inkling that a bullish retracement, probably, has started.
We expect the bulls to meet their next major resistance around a major Daily swing low @ 90.11 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which might be forming a resistance-confluence with the upper bearish trend-line (the bold red line).

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 88.68 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. Price action around the steep bearish trend-line, which we discussed on the Daily chart, is clearer on the H4 chart: we already have a candle closed above the trend-line, and that buttresses our bullish bias. The critical resistance level – a Daily swing low @ 90.11, which we also discussed on the Daily chart, could also be seen on the H4 chart: from a day-trade perspective, we seem to have enough room for further bullish move – although over 100-pip move already made today might restrain any new price rally.
The green horizontal line @ 88.13 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.