Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Pls. NOTE: As at the time of this posting, price had already rallied. These things happen so fast at times; but for the sake of study, I decided to go ahead and post it. Also NOTE that the rally occurred around the MPC Meetings Minutes news release: trading during news periods could be very risky, so please, if you have to trade, consider reducing your risk.
I’m currently in the trade, but yet to know if it would turn out profitable.

Although, the Daily chart isn’t offering too distinct a pattern to support a Short trade, it isn’t offering much to discourage one either.

On the H4 chart above, price recently broke below a swing low @ 1.6382 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), and that automatically shifts our bias to favor a downward price move. However, let’s keep in mind a critical support level: a Daily chart swing low @ 1.6263 that is also visible on the H4 chart (this we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). The white horizontal line @ 1.6556 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6309. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6363 and 1.6417 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6417 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6280 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.6309 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.
NOTE: Price will reach our profit target before the critical support @ 1.6263 that we discussed much earlier today – an encouraging sign. However, that would be if price didn’t break too far below the current price-bottom before retracing upward to the sell-area.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6375;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6393 (Pls note this level doesn’t look as strong as the 61.8% ret.: the identified resistance levels around it aren’t too close together)

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6419; primary Profit target @ 1.6280 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Also, keep in mind the MPC Meeting Minutes news release at 08:30 GMT – be wary of possible price volatility during this period.

Update on today’s EURUSD Long Trade set-up

If you were able to identify the EURUSD Long trade set-up and took the trade; that’s nice, because it happened quite fast.

The Hourly chart above shows the set-up I saw. Hope you can view the formation easily as it is very tiny and cluttered

Using the 5min chart above, I’ll like to give you an idea of how I manage my trades. Yours could be slightly or completely different; it doesn’t matter – as long as it suits your personality.

Based on my method, I placed my initial Stop Loss 2-pips below the most recent hourly swing low @ 1.4198 (please, where necessary, always factor in your broker’s spread)

I identified two potential reversal levels at:
fib 50% ret. @ 1.4237
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.4215

I placed a Limit Order @ 1.4215 (I decided not to factor my broker’s spread, but I don’t always disregard it)

Pls note that I don’t really like using the 50% fib. ret. level as the reward/risk ratio is always close to 1:1; and I prefer 2:1 and above (or, at least, close to 2:1)

With 3 lots, I exited first lot when price moved favorably by same amount risked, which was 19pips @ the 1.4234 level (which I’ve highlighted using the blue dashed line). Then, I moved my Stop Loss to 2pips below the level where price initially reversed (hope you can see where my Stop Loss is currently). With that, my trade is already protected from loss (as in this case) or from maximum loss of 0.5% of my capital initially risked (as in other applicable cases)

At times, if the pips risked is close to 50pips or more, I take some profits before it gets to the amount of pips risked OR move my Stop Loss to break-even (honestly, this aspect is simply an area everybody has to handle in their own individual ways).

This is a bit lengthy, but I hope it helps.

For anyone that finds this method helpful, and didn’t know much about it, it might take some time to fully settle into it, but I believe it’ll worth the time invested. Personally, though I’ve learnt a lot about it, I’m still learning every day.

NOTE: Currently, as I’m about posting this, I’ve been stopped out; but I’m happy I managed the trade well enough to protect myself from loss (I’m not always that fortunate). And I always remind myself that there’s always another trade.

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, price is conveniently out of and above its symmetrical triangle formation: previous swing highs are being broken to the upside. The latest swing high price closed above was a critical resistance level @ 1.4201 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which isn’t just a Daily swing high, but also a Weekly swing high. These are lovely signs confirming a bullish or an upward-move bias. A very critical resistance is @ 1.4336 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). Let’s keep this level in mind (in relation to our profit target, in case we are eventually able to get a Long trade set-up on the Hourly chart – supported by the H4 chart).

On the H4 chart above, the EURUSD is simply in an obvious up-trend: price keeps forming higher highs and higher lows. A trending market doesn’t get more beautiful than this. Price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4166 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 1.4062 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Short Trade set-up on USDCHF Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.0658. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0706 and 1.0753 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.0753 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.0633 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.0658 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell. NOTE: Price will reach our profit target before the critical support @ 1.0630 that we discussed much earlier today – an encouraging sign. However, that would be if price didn’t break below the current price-bottom before retracing upward the sell-area.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.0717;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.0733.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.0755; primary Profit target @ 1.0633 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Long trade set-up is forming on the EURUSD pairs.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, price closed below the symmetrical triangle on Thurday – last week, re-tested it on Friday; and currently, it seems set to continue its downward move. To buttress this bearish bias, price recently broke last week Thurday low @ 1.0701 (a previous critical support level). From a day-trade perspective, we have good reason to go Short – provided the H4 chart support the downward move bias.
The next critical support level is @ 1.0630 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). We should keep this level in mind (in relation to our profit target, in case we are eventually able to get a Short trade set-up on the hourly chart). If price breaks below the level before retracing upward, it’ll even make the coast clearer for a Short trade.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.0701 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. As we’ve probably observed, this swing low @ 1.0701, coincidentally, is also the last week Thursday low that we discussed on the Daily chart. From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Short trade. The white horizontal line @ 1.0816 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.
The critical support level @ 1.0630 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) that we also discussed on the Daily chart is visible too on H4 chart. Let’s really keep it in mind when managing our Short trades – in case we eventually got into one.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Short Trade set-up on GBPUSD Hourly chart.

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart above is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6283. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6350 and 1.6416 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6416 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6247 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.6283 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart above gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6365;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6387.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6418; primary Profit target @ 1.6247 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.

Today on GBPUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades.

On the Daily chart above, price struggled to continue its upward move yesterday, and it closed with a doji candle formation. The doji gave a signal of possible price reversal downward – especially since it formed around the 1.6440 area, which, although offered no distinct high or low, is congested with previous support and resistance levels. To buttress our bearish bias, price recently broke below previous day low @ 1.6355. The critical support trend-line is still hundreds of pips below the current price level, hence – barring any intense price volatility – we can still conveniently seek a Short trade set-up on the hourly chart, as long as the H4 charts supports a Short trade.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6355 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. As we’ve probably observed, this swing low @ 1.6355, coincidentally, is also the previous day low. From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Short trade. The white horizontal line @ 1.6481 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.