Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Today on EURUSD – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we would observe price is still within the downward or bearish channel, and there is the likelihood that price would attempt to find its way down toward the lower edge of the channel – especially when we consider the fact that price is in a very strong longer term bearish trend. From a day-trade perspective, our bias favors the bears, and price break below the previous day’s low @ 1.3459 (not highlighted) earlier today gives more credence to the bias.
However, price is around the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.3450 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line), and it seems the bears are currently struggling to break decisively below the support level. It would be preferable to wait for the close of today’s candle to be surer of where price might be heading next.

On the H4 chart above, price has breached the most recent swing low @ 1.3459 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, to buttress the support hurdle the bears are contending with around the 1.3450 level, which we discussed on the Daily chart, price is struggling to break decisively below the most recent H4 swing low @ 1.3459 that we just mentioned above.
In all, our Daily bias still favors the bears, but we need to be very cautious if we attempt to seek Short trade setups, today, on this currency pair.
The white horizontal line @ 1.3653 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

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