Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, for the past one week, price has been trending southward – in agreement with the longer term down trend. Yesterday, price decisively broke below the lower edge of the symmetrical triangle as the trading day ended with a strong bear-bodied candle. As a result, that strengthened the notion that the longer term bearish trend has probably resumed. From a day-trade perspective, our bearish bias remains intact.
However, there are two critical support levels that we expect price to break below for us to be more confident that the overall bearish trend has resumed: the first is the usual previous day’s low, which, in the case of this currency pair today, is @ 88.79 (not highlighted), and the most recent Daily swing low @ 88.58 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). For more conservative traders, it’s advisable to avoid seeking Hourly Short trade setups – supported by the H4 chart – till the coast is clear.

On the H4 chart above, price broke, at that time, the most recent swing low @ 89.91 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. As discussed on the Daily chart, to be convinced of the bears’ readiness to continue their activity, especially for more conservative traders, it’s preferable to see price break below the most recent swing low – also the previous day’s low @ 88.79 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line).
The white horizontal line @ 90.35 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but...

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, we anticipated a continued bullish move, but, virtually throughout the earlier trading hours, the bears caused an upset as price swooned. Although our bias, yesterday, from a day-trade perspective was bullish, traders following the analyses on this thread were probably shielded from the sudden price collapse since price didn’t break above the Tuesday’s high (which, yesterday, was a previous day’s high) @ 1.0847.
Toward the close of yesterday’s trading hours, the bulls regained their momentum – forcing the bears to give up most of their sudden gains. In continuation of the bulls’ resurgence, early price action today has seen the break of both Tuesday’s high and yesterday’s high @ 1.0847 and 1.0841, respectively. Consequently, our bullish bias remains, with the critical resistance level – the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.0897 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) – still in focus.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.0847 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. Again, while seeking Long trade setups on the Hourly chart, let’s keep in mind the 1.0897 resistance level, which we discussed on the Daily chart.
The green horizontal line @ 1.0737 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but...

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, the lower edge of the upward or bullish channel eventually proved an insurmountable hurdle for the bears as the initial price-rally was sustained. Consequently, our trading bias, from a day-trade perspective, has again shifted to favor the bulls. However, for us to be convinced of the bulls’ readiness to push price further today, we would like to see the break above the previous day’s high @ 1.0847 (not highlighted).
In case price breaks above the 1.0847 level, we should expect further unhindered bullish action toward the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.0897 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line).

On the H4 chart above, price broke, at that time, the most recent swing high @ 1.0787 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifted our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, in line with what was discussed on the Daily chart, the most recent swing high – also the previous day’s high @ 1.0847 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) is a crucial resistance level we would like to see broken for us to be more confident of the bulls’ resolve to sustain their activity.
The green horizontal line @ 1.0713 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on USDCHF – Would the lower edge of the bullish channel hold?

On the Daily chart above, in line with what we discussed yesterday, earlier today, price moved further downward toward the lower edge of the upward or bullish channel – breaking the previous day’s low @ 1.0738 (not highlighted) in the process. At the moment, the channel’s lower edge is doing a good job of providing strong support as the bears seem unable to break below it. From a day-trade perspective, our bias is still reluctantly in favor of the bears, but current price actions are telling to be wary of seeking Short trade setups until the coast is clear. Consequently, it’s advisable for us to exercise patience on this currency pair – probably throughout today.

On the H4 chart above, price has breached the most recent swing low – also the previous day’s low @ 1.0738 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, we could notice the proximity of price to the lower edge of the bullish channel, which we discussed on the Daily chart, and how it’s reacting to the lower edge. It’s quite obvious the bears aren’t having a field day. Again, as advised on the Daily chart, it’s better to abstain from trading this pair until the coast is clear.
In all, technically speaking, our day-trade bias still supports the bears – albeit reluctantly.
The white horizontal line @ 1.0787 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

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Today on USDCHF – Daily and H4 charts support Short trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, we would observe that on Friday, last week, price hit the upper edge of the upward or bullish channel, and on the same day, it reversed sharply to close as a strong bear-bodied candle. That was a convincing sign that the bulls weren’t prepared to disregard the upper boundary of the bullish channel just yet. Further supporting the possibility of a bearish move toward the lower part of the bullish channel is earlier price action today, which resulted in the break of the previous trading day’s low – Friday’s low @ 1.0747 (not highlighted). Consequently, from a day-trade perspective, our bias has shifted in favor of the bears.
However, considering price’s proximity to the lower edge of the bullish channel (currently about 50pips away), there’s the need for us to be cautious as we seek Short trade opportunities – especially when we also consider that the USD/CHF currency pair is currently within a medium term bullish trend.

On the H4 chart above, price has breached the most recent swing low @ 1.0746 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, we could notice price is yet to break decisively below the 1.0746 support level, and the last fully formed H4 candle completed the formation of a quasi-reversal candle pattern around the same support level. Hence, we have a sign suggesting a possible bullish retracement.
In all, while our day-trade bias supports the bears, we should be conscious of the contradictory signals.
The white horizontal line @ 1.0897 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, in case of a clearer coast, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, the bulls continued their activity in a very determined manner: after the break of Wednesday’s high @ 91.36 (not highlighted), which resulted in a clear break above the most recent Daily swing high @ 91.26 (that we've highlighted using the blue broken line), as anticipated, price continued its upward movement. Also, early market action today has seen price break above the previous day’s high @ 92.03 (also not highlighted). Consequently, from a day-trade perspective, our bias remains bullish. The next important resistance area we should be monitoring is the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle.
Today, the coast seems relatively clear enough for us to seek Hourly Long trade setups – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken the most recent Daily swing high @ 91.36 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move.
The green horizontal line @ 90.55 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.