Further Update on yesterday’s USDCHF Short Trade set-up

Currently, on my USDCHF Short trade, price has moved in my favor enough for me to consider taking profit. My preferred level of taking initial profit is @ 1.0666; however, with the new doji formation around a weekly pivot, I decided to take out some profits.
Pls NOTE I’ve adjusted my Stop Loss to just above the most recent swing high @ 1.0714.

My next exit level is the primary profit target @ 1.0626 (the fib. 127% ext.)

Update on today’s USDCHF Short Trade set-up

If you were able to identify the USDCHF Short trade set-up and took the trade, that’s nice. I took the trade, and I’m still in it.
Pls NOTE: I also took a Long trade on the EURUSD, but it didn’t work out.
Actually, the Daily charts analyses – for some time now – have often been telling us that the markets are choppy and indecisive. Hence, for more conservative traders, the analyses are good enough for them to stand aside. Personally, I’ve been reducing the percentage of capital risked per trade – until the Daily charts (and above) start giving signs that markets have started trending.

Using the Hourly chart above, I’ll like to chip-in one or two insights that I hope would assist us in managing our trades. Sincerely, I believe trade-management is one of the most effective ways of ensuring the steady growth of our equity curve.

I entered the trade with a Limit Order placed around the fib 61.8% ret (1.0706) – based on the confluence of overlapping fibs, a pivot, previous swing highs/lows. My initial Stop-Loss was @ 1.0740 (the most recent swing high before I entered the Short trade). As you could observe, price shot through my Limit Order @ fib. 61.8% upward, even some pips beyond the fib. 78.6% ret. before reversing.
Currently, price is yet to move enough in my favor for me to consider taking some profits; however, the new swing high @ 1.0733 has giving me the opportunity to move my Stop-Loss lower by a few pips. It might not be much, but every chance to reduce the potential amount that could be lost in a given trade is a golden opportunity that must not be disregarded.

Pls NOTE the fib 78.6% ret (1.0721) also had a confluence of overlapping fibs etc. supporting it. If you had placed your Limit Order around that level, unlike me, you would currently be having a more pleasurable time with this trade. However, you would have done that with the possibility of missing the trade.

Analysis Correction on the H4 chart

A friend just observed on my Forex Factory thread that the most recent swing low is @ 94.64 (the green horizontal line) – as against 94.58.

I apologize; hence I’ve modified the H4 chart (above).

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades, but…

On the Daily chart above, last week, price closed above a cluster of resistance levels, two of which were the downward trend-line (the red dashed line), and the most recent Daily swing high @ 94.77 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line); and has stayed above those levels. These are good signs sustaining a bullish or an upward-move bias. However, we have a new resistance level @ 95.28 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), and it would be nice to see price break this level upward to have a clearer coast. Please, I think it’s advisable to allow price break above this 95.28 level (which is just about 30 pips away) before we seek a Long trade set-up on the Hourly – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart above, also last week, price broke a couple of swing highs upward; the most recent of them was the swing high @ 94.37 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line). From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 94.58 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact. One thing to note, however, is that price seems currently stuck between the most recent swing low @ 94.58 and the resistance level @ 95.28 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) that we discussed on the daily chart. Personally, this range is relatively narrow for a H4 chart (just about 70pips), and, as a result, I’m willing to let price break above the resistance @ 95.28 before I seek a Long trade set-up on the Hourly.

However, in case the coast eventually becomes clear enough, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on USDJPY – Daily and H4 charts support Long trades.

On the Daily chart above, yesterday, price closed above a cluster of resistance levels, two of which were the downward trend-line (the red dashed line), and the most recent Daily swing high @ 94.77 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). These are good signs confirming a bullish or an upward-move bias. Though, we are still within a downward channel formation, there seems to be enough room for price to venture further upward toward the 96.50 area.

On the H4 chart above, price has broken a couple of swing highs upward: the most recent swing high @ 94.37 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), and a higher previous swing high – which happens to be the same Daily swing high discussed earlier – @ 94.77 (this we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 93.07 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Today on GBPUSD – Are the Daily and H4 charts supporting Long trades?

NOTE: These are very challenging times for trending methods: judging from the four majors that I trade, the market simply is indecisive. Like me, if you decide to stay in the market – and not stay away – proper Trade Management is the “HOLY GRAIL” here, and with that, please let us remember to keep our risks per trade very low. Large draw downs are very difficult to recover from.

On the Daily chart above, price seems to be in a sustained but very sluggish upward move. Currently, price is approaching a critical resistance level @ 1.6556 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) – about 50 pips away. A break above that level would ease our concern for any major obstacle to continuous price move upward. As a moderately conservative trader, please wait for the break above 1.6556 before seeking Long trade set-up on the Hourly; as a very conservative trader, I think it’s advisable to stay completely out of the market - I’m primarily referring to the four majors that I study; however, this view probably applies to virtually all pairs as, I believe, the economic uncertainties are global issues.

On the H4 chart Price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6503 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. The critical resistance level @ 1.6556 that we referred to on the Daily chart is also visible on the H4 (this we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line). Please keep this level in mind. In all, from a day-trade perspective, the H4 chart is supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 1.6309 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, if you decide to go Long, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.

Update on today’s GBPUSD Short Trade set-up

Eventually, on this trade, I had a maximum loss of almost 0.5% of my capital. However, sometimes in a lost trade, there’re one or two lessons we could gain:

NOTE: I captured the attached 5min chart screen before price moved completely against me.

From the 5min chart above, you would notice my Limit Order was triggered @ 1.6375 – the fib 61.8% ret. Initially, price moved in my favor by about 28pips (to around 1.6347); however this was still a bit far from my initial target-level to take profit @ 1.6328 (which I’ve highlighted using the blue dashed line) – that would’ve been 47pips profit (the amount of pips initially risked). I might also have considered taking some profits anywhere from above 30pips; and adjusting my Stop Loss afterward.

The point I would like to make here is: with this method, price would often move a few pips in our favor before reversing against us – in the case of an unfavorable trade. During such periods, it’s absolutely left to us to determine the way we manage our trades.
For some, with this same method, this particular trade could have been a break-even trade – unfortunately, not for me.

The good news is my account is still well funded to comfortably take another trade – since I’m relatively very conservative at taking risks.

Warren Buffett’s hint:
Rule number one, don’t lose money. Rule number two, don’t forget rule number one. Rule number three, don’t go into debt.